SLOW AND STEADY WINS THE RACE

As football season gets ready to begin one common theme is present each August. A plethora of posts on different forums asking who was the top handicapper last year, whether it be a service or just someone posting on that particular forum.

Knowing how consistent my NFL record has been over the past three seasons (since I built my NFL database), yet never finishing in the top five of the standings, I couldn't help but think this was the wrong way to approach following someone the next season. I knew my record over the long haul was solid but you have to be both lucky and good to finish near the top.

Having access toThe Sports Monitor's records since 1985, I went back and looked at the top finishers each season in the NFL and how they fared the following season. This is not meant to suggest services should be avoided (after all I run a service). The point of the report is to help the bettor find a dependable source to help them wager this season. For that reason, I have simply listed the services as #1, #2, etc. to make the point, while attempting to not demean any one service. It is mearly a report that suggests consistent, steady profits over a number of seasons should be your goal rather than following the "hot" handicapper from the previous season.

My gut instincts were right as you will see by clicking on the report above. The following season results were not even close to the previous season. Over the past six seasons, only 11 of our 25 handicappers (44%) (5 services were not monitored the following season after their top 5 finish) even finished with a profit the following season. Just 3 of the 6 handicappers who led the way the previous season showed a profit the following season. And, out of the 11 handicappers who did show a profit, their median net unit win was just 3.3 net units. Remember, this is out of the 11 handicappers who won the previous season, not all 25 handicappers. Using all 25 handicappers, their median net units won the next season was -2.3 net units. That doesn't quite get it done.

Slow and steady wins the race. Make sure you find someone who does it year in and year out. I have had six consecutive winning NFL seasons but most important are my last three seasons, which represent my results since overhauling and building my NFL database - a project that took four months back in the summer of 2002. Since then, I have consistently won over 56% of my games, performing well above average with both my side and total plays. For a complete breakdown of my record, check out my NFL Records page.